Bug or bad luck? Status-Mania seemingly not rollable.

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Bug or bad luck? Status-Mania seemingly not rollable.

Post by Ark on Thu Apr 28, 2016 5:48 pm

I have a lvl 11 Orb and tried to unlock the unique roll. I've already unlocked about 10 other uniques for the achievement so I have a feeling of what the chances are and rc confirmed it to be 4/100.
Here's my problem though: I've spent about 400x Ruby, 400x Saphire, 300x Topaz, 400x Bone, 500x Metal and 1200x Wood trying to obtain Status-Mania on aforementioned orb with x5 Bone per try, still no luck.
If I calculate it right* that is 880 tries, much much closer to 1/1000 than to 4/100, in fact 40 times as much(!), with status mania still to be obtained. Is it really bad luck or is there a bug in the rerolling system?

*
400*24G+400*24G+300*24G+500*8G+1200*8G = 40000G = 4000x Bones
4000x Bones + 400x Bones = 4400x Bones
4400x Bones / 5x Bones = 880 tries
Apparent chance to obtain status-mania: 1/880 = 0.1/100 != 4/100

The reason I listed the resources spent in detail is because I hope to get them refunded if it really is a bug. The counts specified are rounded estimates from memory.

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Re: Bug or bad luck? Status-Mania seemingly not rollable.

Post by rc on Fri Apr 29, 2016 2:35 pm

The orb unique is more rare than most of the other ones.

orb: [
new CraftBoost.Sub('dmg', 1, 1),
new CraftBoost.Sub('leech-magn', 2, 1),
new CraftBoost.Sub('leech-chance', 2, 1),
new CraftBoost.Sub('mana-max', 1, 1),
new CraftBoost.Sub('mana-regen', 1, 1),
new CraftBoost.Sub('atkSpd', 1, 1),
new CraftBoost.Sub('crit-chance', 1, 1),
new CraftBoost.Sub('crit-magn', 1, 1),
new CraftBoost.Sub('status-magn', 5, 4),
new CraftBoost.Sub('status-chance', 5, 4),
new CraftBoost.Sub('status-time', 5, 4),
new CraftBoost.Sub('dmg-magic', 3, 1),
new CraftBoost.Sub('dmg-lightning', 3, 1),
new CraftBoost.Sub('statusMania', 1, 4/100),
]

You have 4/100 / (22 + 4/100) = 1/550 chance to get it.
Note: The sword is also as rare.

Most other weapons are 4/100 / 12 = 1/300 chance.

rc
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Re: Bug or bad luck? Status-Mania seemingly not rollable.

Post by Ark on Fri Apr 29, 2016 4:27 pm

Oh well, I'd have expected that all uniques have the same chance. It's a mean, unavoidable trap.
It would be nice to have the uniques and non-uniques grouped separately so that the 4/100 chance is guaranteed, so that in the future others won't waste their resources wondering why their luck has gone when in reality it hasn't.

I don't believe the 1/300 chance though because I have obtained at least half of the self-rolled uniques, about 5 to 10, in less than 50 to 100 tries each.

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Re: Bug or bad luck? Status-Mania seemingly not rollable.

Post by Rin on Fri Apr 29, 2016 7:52 pm

I have a Status-mania Orb I made this morning. You can borrow it if you wish.

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Re: Bug or bad luck? Status-Mania seemingly not rollable.

Post by Ark on Fri May 06, 2016 10:05 am

Rin wrote:I have a Status-mania Orb I made this morning. You can borrow it if you wish.
Thanks for the kind offer. I'll do that when we're both online at the same time.

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Re: Bug or bad luck? Status-Mania seemingly not rollable.

Post by Ark on Fri Jun 03, 2016 8:48 am

I've now wasted another 1500 bones bought by gems for 500 more tries without luck. I'm losing my patience and am calling this bullshit bugged. Could you please simulate your reroll algorithm on the orb to see if it ever achieves Status-Mania and what the actual chance is? The tries as stated in the topic's first post were done on a lv11 blue orb, these ones on a lv3 blue one.

Edit: Make that another 250 bones. Still no luck.

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Re: Bug or bad luck? Status-Mania seemingly not rollable.

Post by rc on Sun Jun 05, 2016 4:06 pm

After running the simulation on 5000 orbs with 5 boosts each, the unique showed up in about 20 of them.

I will balance the unique roll chance soon.

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